Plantations forestières de Toona ciliata : impacts de la gestion flexible sur leur viabilité économique
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.19182/bft2022.353.a36818Mots-clés
cèdre rouge d'Australie, arbre binomial, actif biologique, modélisation dynamique, investissement forestier, valeur nette actualisée, méthode des options réelles, volatilité.Résumé
Les plantations forestières à Toona ciliata sont annoncées comme économiquement viables grâce à leur bois qui convient bien aux produits de niche de haute qualité. Cependant, cette étude vérifie si les projets d'investissement dans T. ciliata sont économiquement viables en y intégrant une gestion flexible. Nous avons appliqué les coefficients technico-économiques des plantations de T. ciliata sur un horizon de planification à 15 ans, en considérant le projet d'investissement comme un actif sous-jacent et le prix du bois comme la seule source d'incertitude. En utilisant la méthode de Monte-Carlo, nous avons modélisé l'incertitude pour obtenir la volatilité du projet, de sorte que, en appliquant la méthode des options réelles, la flexibilité de gestion pour le report, l'expansion et l'abandon s'ajoute aux actifs sous-jacents. En se basant sur la méthodologie traditionnelle d'évaluation économique, nous avons obtenu une valeur actuelle nette statique de 5 075 USD, ce qui indique la viabilité économique du projet d'investissement dans des plantations forestières à T. ciliata. En raison de l'incertitude liée aux prix du bois, la volatilité du projet s'établit à 131,7 %. Ensuite, il a été constaté que l'intégration des options de report et d'abandon ajoute une prime de 2 147 USD à la valeur du projet, le redirigeant vers une valeur nette actualisée accrue de 7 223 USD. L'intégration des options réelles de report et d'abandon apporte de la souplesse et une aide à la décision pour la gestion des plantations forestières à T. ciliata, ce qui se traduit par une augmentation de 42,3 % de la valeur du projet d'investissement.
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