Envisioning the future of territories to tackle demographic and employment challenges in sub-Saharan Africa


Jean-Michel Sourisseau
Nathalie Bougnoux
Jean-François Bélières
Robin Bourgeois
Mamy Soumaré
Patrick Rasolofo


Version française de l'article

In sub-Saharan Africa, the magnitude of the demographic challenge implies anticipating targets to be reached within the time horizon of the next generation, in all sectors of activity. We propose an operational methodology that can be implemented by policymakers and actors in rural territories to envision the future and to prepare their development strategy. This territorial foresight methodology combines an analysis of past local dynamics, a 20-year population projection and a participatory foresight process. It enables collective thinking on sustainable paths and provides a framework for monitoring and steering public territorial action.


Comment citer
Sourisseau, J.-M., Bougnoux, N., Bélières, J.-F., Bourgeois, R., Soumaré, M., & Rasolofo, P. (2017). Envisioning the future of territories to tackle demographic and employment challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Perspective, (44). https://doi.org/10.19182/agritrop/00004
Biographie des auteurs

Jean-Michel Sourisseau, CIRAD, UMR ART-Dev, Univ Montpellier

Jean-Michel Sourisseau is a socio-economist in UMR ART-Dev at CIRAD (Joint Research Unit, Actors, Resources and Territories in Development, https://art-dev.cnrs.fr/). He is the CIRAD focal point for family farming.

Nathalie Bougnoux, AFD, Paris

Nathalie Bougnoux is a project team leader in the Agriculture, rural development and biodiversity division at AFD (French Development Agency, https://www.afd.fr/en). She has worked for many years on population and migration dynamics and has launched a number of foresight studies at AFD.

Jean-François Bélières, CIRAD, UMR ART-Dev, Univ Montpellier

Jean-François Bélières is an agroeconomist in UMR ART-Dev at CIRAD, and is currently based in Madagascar at FOFIFA (National Centre for Applied Research and Rural Development, http://www.fofifa.mg/) in CIRAD’s platform in partnership for research and training, SPAD (Highland production systems and sustainability in Madagascar, https://www.dp-spad.org/). He focuses on the impacts of rural development policies on farms and local economies.

Robin Bourgeois, CIRAD, UMR ART-Dev, Univ Montpellier

Robin Bourgeois is a foresight analyst in UMR ART-Dev at CIRAD. He is currently based in South Africa, conducting applied research on foresight, governance and territorial development.

Mamy Soumaré, IER

Mamy Soumaré is a geographer and researcher at the Institut d’Economie Rurale (IER – Rural Economy Institute, Mali), as well as a professor at the University of Bamako. His research focuses on the representation and modelling of spatial dynamics.

Patrick Rasolofo, IISS

Patrick Rasolofo is a rural development economist. He is the founder and Director of the Institut International des Sciences Sociales (IISS, International Institute for Social Sciences, Madagascar, https://iissmada.wordpress.com/).


Authors' publications

Bourgeois R., Sourisseau J.-M., Rasolofo P., Bougnoux N., Ramanitriniony Haja K., Rabeandriamaro H., Bélières J.-F., 2016. Atelier de prospective participative Les avenirs de Vakinankaratra en 2035. Paris, AFD, 38 p. http://agritrop.cirad.fr/580520/

Bourgeois R., Sourisseau J.-M., Soumaré M., Coulibaly B., Bélières J.-F., Bougnoux N., 2016. Atelier de prospective participative Les avenirs de Ségou en 2035. Paris, AFD, 35 p. http://agritrop.cirad.fr/580519/

Sourisseau J.-M., Bélières J.-F., Bourgeois R., Soumaré M., Rasolofo P., Guengant J.-P., Bougnoux N., 2017. Penser ensemble l’avenir d’un territoire. Diagnostic et prospective territoriale au Mali et à Madagascar. Paris, AFD. Études de l’AFD n°15, 179 p. ISSN 2492-8313. https://www.afd.fr/fr/penser-ensemble-avenir-territoire

Sourisseau J.-M., Bougnoux N., Bélières J.-F., Bourgeois R., 2017. Territory-centred thinking and action for a better future: territorial foresight in the regions of Ségou in Mali and Vakinankaratra in Madagascar. In: Living territories to transform the world. Caron P., Valette E., Wassenaar T., Coppens D'Eeckenbrugge G., Papazian V. (Eds). Versailles, Editions Quae, p. 243-253. ISBN 978-2-7592-2731-0.

Sourisseau J.-M., Rasolofo P., Bélières J.-F., Guengant J.-P., Ramanitriniony Haja K., Bourgeois R., Razafimiarantsoa Tovonirina T., Andrianantoandro Voahirana T., Ramarijaona M., Burnod P., Rabeandriamaro H., Bougnoux N., 2016. Diagnostic territorial de la région du Vakinankaratra à Madagascar. Paris, AFD, 157 p. http://agritrop.cirad.fr/580518/

Sourisseau J.-M., Soumaré M., Bélières J.-F., Guengant J.-P., Bourgeois R., Coulibaly B., Traoré S., 2016. Diagnostic territorial de la région de Ségou au Mali. Paris, AFD, 150 p. http://agritrop.cirad.fr/580517/

Other references

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Losch B., 2016. Structural transformation to boost youth labour demand in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of agriculture, rural areas and territorial development. Geneva, International Labour Office (ILO), Employment working paper n°204. http://www.ilo.org/employment/Whatwedo/Publications/working-papers/WCMS_533993/lang--en/index.htm

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