Space-time analysis of Peste des petits ruminants in Benin, 2009-2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.19182/remvt.37582Keywords
Small ruminants, peste des petits ruminants, risk analysis, disease surveillance, notifiable diseases, BeninAbstract
Background: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a viral disease that affects sheep and goats, has been endemic in Benin for several decades. Aim: Our purpose was to determine the space-time distribution of PPR in Benin. Methods: This work draws on ten years of passive surveillance data at the national level (2009 to 2018), provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries in Benin. Data covered all 77 communes in Benin. Using the cumulative incidence of PPR per 10,000 animals at risk per commune, we conducted cluster and hotspot analyses and designed risk maps for each year of the study and for the entire 10-year period. Results: We identified space-time clusters as follows: High-High, Low-Low, High-Low, Low-High and hotspots. This study revealed that over the period, 1,297 new outbreaks were recorded with 88,668 sick animals and 23,002 deaths. The PPR incidence and mortality rates were highest in 2010, 2011 and 2012. The departments of Ouémé, Plateau and Borgou were the most affected. The number of new PPR outbreaks recorded was higher in March, April and May, with more infected animals and a higher mortality rate. More outbreaks were reported in communes in the departments of Mono and Couffo. Overall, the study identified significant clusters of PPR across the 10-year period in 26 communes and 9 departments. Conclusions: The results of this space-time analysis may help improve PPR risk assessment and forecasting in certain regions and make an important contribution to disease prevention and control measures.
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