Conceptual Model to Predict the Intraherd Spread of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia

Abstract

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a contagious respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony. CBPP heavily constrains cattle farm development in Africa and results in mortality, decrease in animal production, and control costs. A conceptual model of CBPP spread within an infected herd (vaccinated or not) is proposed. It was developed based on today’s epidemiological knowledge of the disease. This conceptual model was translated into a mathematical model, which can be used to test various CBPP control strategies at the herd level. It will have to be tried out in various CBPP epidemiological contexts of Africa and to be tested against future experimental results in order to be validated and eventually improved. Finally, it will be essential to conduct surveys during CBPP outbreaks, carry out clinical trials, and promote publications of the detailed results of these actions to assess in a more reliable manner the epidemiological parameters that control the model behavior.